+probability(unfinished)

pkg/dash/app_html.py

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
+from datetime import timedelta, datetime
 from dash import dcc, html
 from pkg.config import interval_options, days_options, render_data
 
-
 def layout_config(app):
     app.layout = html.Div([
         html.Div(
@@ -229,9 +229,47 @@ def layout_config(app):
                 'width': '50%',
                 'marginTop': '10px',
                 'borderCollapse': 'collapse'
+            }),
+            # 新增测试区域
+            html.H2("Historical Probability Test", style={'marginTop': '20px'}),
+            html.Table([
+                html.Tr([
+                    html.Td("Test Date:", style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+                    html.Td(
+                        dcc.DatePickerSingle(
+                            id='test-date-input',
+                            date=(datetime.now().date() - timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),  # 默认昨天
+                            display_format='YYYY-MM-DD',
+                            style={'width': '100%'}
+                        )
+                    )
+                ]),
+                html.Tr([
+                    html.Td("Test Time:", style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+                    html.Td(
+                        dcc.Input(
+                            id='test-time-input',
+                            type='text',
+                            placeholder='HH:MM:SS (e.g., 12:00:00)',
+                            value='12:00:00',
+                            style={'width': '100%'}
+                        )
+                    )
+                ]),
+                html.Tr([
+                    html.Td("Test Probability:", style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+                    html.Td(
+                        html.Button('Test', id='test-button', n_clicks=0)
+                    )
+                ]),
+                html.Tr(id='test-info-tooltip', style={'margin': '10px'})
+            ], style={
+                'width': '50%',
+                'marginTop': '10px',
+                'borderCollapse': 'collapse'
             })
         ], style={'marginLeft': '50px'}),
 
         dcc.Interval(id='clock-interval', interval=1000, n_intervals=0)
     ])
-    return app
+    return app

pkg/dash/func/info_test.py

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+from pkg.dash.func.info_func import *
+from pkg.dash.app_init import app
+from dash.dependencies import Input, Output
+from dash import html
+import pandas as pd
+from datetime import timedelta
+
+@app.callback(
+    [Output('test-info-tooltip', 'children')],
+    [Input('test-button', 'n_clicks'),
+     Input('test-date-input', 'date'),
+     Input('test-time-input', 'value')]
+)
+def update_test_info(n_clicks, test_date, test_time):
+    if n_clicks == 0:
+        return [html.Div("Click 'Test' to see historical probability results.")]
+
+    est = pytz.timezone('US/Eastern')
+
+    # 解析测试日期和时间
+    try:
+        test_date = pd.to_datetime(test_date).date()
+        test_datetime = pd.to_datetime(f"{test_date} {test_time}").tz_localize(est)  # 使用 est
+    except ValueError:
+        return [html.Div("Invalid date or time format. Use YYYY-MM-DD and HH:MM:SS (e.g., 12:00:00).")]
+
+    # 1. 计算到 test_datetime 的累计推文数（模拟当时的 tweet_count）
+    data = render_data.global_agg_df.copy()
+    historical_data = data[data['datetime_est'] <= test_datetime]
+    if historical_data.empty:
+        return [html.Div(f"No data available up to {test_datetime}")]
+    tweet_count = historical_data['tweet_count'].sum()
+
+    # 2. 计算实际最终推文数（到当天结束时的总数）
+    day_end = pd.to_datetime(f"{test_date} 23:59:59").tz_localize(est)  # 使用 est
+    actual_data = data[(data['date'] == test_date) & (data['datetime_est'] <= day_end)]
+    if actual_data.empty:
+        return [html.Div(f"No data available for {test_date}")]
+    actual_end_count = actual_data['tweet_count'].sum()
+
+    # 3. 模拟 days_to_next_friday（从 test_datetime 到下周五）
+    days_to_next_friday = (4 - test_date.weekday()) % 7
+    next_friday = (test_datetime.replace(hour=12, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) +
+                   timedelta(days=days_to_next_friday))
+    if test_datetime > next_friday:
+        next_friday += timedelta(days=7)
+    days_to_next_friday = (next_friday - test_datetime).total_seconds() / (24 * 60 * 60)
+
+    # 4. 设置预测范围（基于实际最终推文数的 ±10%）
+    prob_start = actual_end_count * 0.9  # 90% of actual
+    prob_end = actual_end_count * 1.1    # 110% of actual
+
+    # 5. 调用原始的 calculate_tweet_probability() 计算概率
+    probability = calculate_tweet_probability(tweet_count, days_to_next_friday, prob_start, prob_end)
+    prob_min, prob_max = map(float, probability.split(" - "))
+    formatted_probability = f"{prob_min * 100:.2f}% - {prob_max * 100:.2f}%"
+
+    # 6. 构建测试结果表格
+    test_table_rows = [
+        html.Tr([
+            html.Th("Test Date and Time:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+            html.Td(str(test_datetime), colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
+        ]),
+        html.Tr([
+            html.Th("Tweet Count at Test Time:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+            html.Td(str(tweet_count), colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
+        ]),
+        html.Tr([
+            html.Th("Actual Final Tweet Count:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+            html.Td(str(actual_end_count), colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
+        ]),
+        html.Tr([
+            html.Th(f"Predicted Range ({int(prob_start)}-{int(prob_end)}):", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+            html.Td(formatted_probability, colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
+        ]),
+        html.Tr([
+            html.Th("Does Actual Fall in Range?", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+            html.Td(
+                "Yes" if prob_start <= actual_end_count <= prob_end else "No",
+                colSpan=6,
+                style={'paddingRight': '10px', 'color': 'green' if prob_start <= actual_end_count <= prob_end else 'red'}
+            )
+        ])
+    ]
+    if prob_start <= actual_end_count <= prob_end:
+        expected_prob = (prob_max + prob_min) / 2
+        test_table_rows.append(
+            html.Tr([
+                html.Th("Expected Probability:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+                html.Td(f"~{expected_prob * 100:.2f}% (should be high if model fits)", colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
+            ])
+        )
+    else:
+        test_table_rows.append(
+            html.Tr([
+                html.Th("Note:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
+                html.Td("Model prediction does not match actual outcome.", colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px', 'color': 'red'})
+            ])
+        )
+
+    test_table = html.Table(test_table_rows, style={
+        'width': '100%',
+        'textAlign': 'left',
+        'borderCollapse': 'collapse'
+    })
+    return [test_table]