+probability(unfinished)
This commit is contained in:
NY
parent
ce8127cadb
commit
192bd42d0e
@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
|
||||
from datetime import timedelta, datetime
|
||||
from dash import dcc, html
|
||||
from pkg.config import interval_options, days_options, render_data
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def layout_config(app):
|
||||
app.layout = html.Div([
|
||||
html.Div(
|
||||
@ -229,6 +229,44 @@ def layout_config(app):
|
||||
'width': '50%',
|
||||
'marginTop': '10px',
|
||||
'borderCollapse': 'collapse'
|
||||
}),
|
||||
# 新增测试区域
|
||||
html.H2("Historical Probability Test", style={'marginTop': '20px'}),
|
||||
html.Table([
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Td("Test Date:", style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(
|
||||
dcc.DatePickerSingle(
|
||||
id='test-date-input',
|
||||
date=(datetime.now().date() - timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), # 默认昨天
|
||||
display_format='YYYY-MM-DD',
|
||||
style={'width': '100%'}
|
||||
)
|
||||
)
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Td("Test Time:", style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(
|
||||
dcc.Input(
|
||||
id='test-time-input',
|
||||
type='text',
|
||||
placeholder='HH:MM:SS (e.g., 12:00:00)',
|
||||
value='12:00:00',
|
||||
style={'width': '100%'}
|
||||
)
|
||||
)
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Td("Test Probability:", style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(
|
||||
html.Button('Test', id='test-button', n_clicks=0)
|
||||
)
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr(id='test-info-tooltip', style={'margin': '10px'})
|
||||
], style={
|
||||
'width': '50%',
|
||||
'marginTop': '10px',
|
||||
'borderCollapse': 'collapse'
|
||||
})
|
||||
], style={'marginLeft': '50px'}),
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
106
pkg/dash/func/info_test.py
Normal file
106
pkg/dash/func/info_test.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
|
||||
from pkg.dash.func.info_func import *
|
||||
from pkg.dash.app_init import app
|
||||
from dash.dependencies import Input, Output
|
||||
from dash import html
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
from datetime import timedelta
|
||||
|
||||
@app.callback(
|
||||
[Output('test-info-tooltip', 'children')],
|
||||
[Input('test-button', 'n_clicks'),
|
||||
Input('test-date-input', 'date'),
|
||||
Input('test-time-input', 'value')]
|
||||
)
|
||||
def update_test_info(n_clicks, test_date, test_time):
|
||||
if n_clicks == 0:
|
||||
return [html.Div("Click 'Test' to see historical probability results.")]
|
||||
|
||||
est = pytz.timezone('US/Eastern')
|
||||
|
||||
# 解析测试日期和时间
|
||||
try:
|
||||
test_date = pd.to_datetime(test_date).date()
|
||||
test_datetime = pd.to_datetime(f"{test_date} {test_time}").tz_localize(est) # 使用 est
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
return [html.Div("Invalid date or time format. Use YYYY-MM-DD and HH:MM:SS (e.g., 12:00:00).")]
|
||||
|
||||
# 1. 计算到 test_datetime 的累计推文数（模拟当时的 tweet_count）
|
||||
data = render_data.global_agg_df.copy()
|
||||
historical_data = data[data['datetime_est'] <= test_datetime]
|
||||
if historical_data.empty:
|
||||
return [html.Div(f"No data available up to {test_datetime}")]
|
||||
tweet_count = historical_data['tweet_count'].sum()
|
||||
|
||||
# 2. 计算实际最终推文数（到当天结束时的总数）
|
||||
day_end = pd.to_datetime(f"{test_date} 23:59:59").tz_localize(est) # 使用 est
|
||||
actual_data = data[(data['date'] == test_date) & (data['datetime_est'] <= day_end)]
|
||||
if actual_data.empty:
|
||||
return [html.Div(f"No data available for {test_date}")]
|
||||
actual_end_count = actual_data['tweet_count'].sum()
|
||||
|
||||
# 3. 模拟 days_to_next_friday（从 test_datetime 到下周五）
|
||||
days_to_next_friday = (4 - test_date.weekday()) % 7
|
||||
next_friday = (test_datetime.replace(hour=12, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) +
|
||||
timedelta(days=days_to_next_friday))
|
||||
if test_datetime > next_friday:
|
||||
next_friday += timedelta(days=7)
|
||||
days_to_next_friday = (next_friday - test_datetime).total_seconds() / (24 * 60 * 60)
|
||||
|
||||
# 4. 设置预测范围（基于实际最终推文数的 ±10%）
|
||||
prob_start = actual_end_count * 0.9 # 90% of actual
|
||||
prob_end = actual_end_count * 1.1 # 110% of actual
|
||||
|
||||
# 5. 调用原始的 calculate_tweet_probability() 计算概率
|
||||
probability = calculate_tweet_probability(tweet_count, days_to_next_friday, prob_start, prob_end)
|
||||
prob_min, prob_max = map(float, probability.split(" - "))
|
||||
formatted_probability = f"{prob_min * 100:.2f}% - {prob_max * 100:.2f}%"
|
||||
|
||||
# 6. 构建测试结果表格
|
||||
test_table_rows = [
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th("Test Date and Time:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(str(test_datetime), colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th("Tweet Count at Test Time:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(str(tweet_count), colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th("Actual Final Tweet Count:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(str(actual_end_count), colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th(f"Predicted Range ({int(prob_start)}-{int(prob_end)}):", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(formatted_probability, colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
|
||||
]),
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th("Does Actual Fall in Range?", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(
|
||||
"Yes" if prob_start <= actual_end_count <= prob_end else "No",
|
||||
colSpan=6,
|
||||
style={'paddingRight': '10px', 'color': 'green' if prob_start <= actual_end_count <= prob_end else 'red'}
|
||||
)
|
||||
])
|
||||
]
|
||||
if prob_start <= actual_end_count <= prob_end:
|
||||
expected_prob = (prob_max + prob_min) / 2
|
||||
test_table_rows.append(
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th("Expected Probability:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td(f"~{expected_prob * 100:.2f}% (should be high if model fits)", colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px'})
|
||||
])
|
||||
)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
test_table_rows.append(
|
||||
html.Tr([
|
||||
html.Th("Note:", colSpan=2, style={'paddingRight': '10px'}),
|
||||
html.Td("Model prediction does not match actual outcome.", colSpan=6, style={'paddingRight': '10px', 'color': 'red'})
|
||||
])
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
test_table = html.Table(test_table_rows, style={
|
||||
'width': '100%',
|
||||
'textAlign': 'left',
|
||||
'borderCollapse': 'collapse'
|
||||
})
|
||||
return [test_table]
|
||||
Loading…
x
Reference in New Issue
Block a user